Having spent nearly half my life in Mexico, the same amount in Canada and the remainder in the USA (and some in Europe), it is impossible to not have given some thought to Trump’s wall along the U.S. southern border. I’ve been against in from the beginning. Aside from being a nearly impossible (ie: its costs and logistics) project to actually accomplish, the world doesn’t need another wall separating countries, and it especially shouldn’t need one between two countries that share so much in common and are so intrinsically linked.

But I’m starting to think that perhaps the wall is going to be something the U.S. may need, unfortunately, if corrupt governance, impoverished economies, climate catastrophe and criminal violence in Central American countries continue to increasingly drive migrants north.

And I think there are many smart people who know this, but it is not a topic that they can openly talk about. Trump and his wall supporters can’t because they deny climate change, which is primarily the reason why the wall, ironically, may now be needed. Liberals can’t talk about it because of the terrible humanitarian and socially unimaginable actions this would entail.

Climate change is only going to worsen, there is no changing that now. Even if we could move to carbon neutrality globally tomorrow we’d still see temperatures rising. It’s like a super freighter at sea, it can’t stop immediately.

And as it worsens, there will be more and more people from vulnerable regions, flocking to where water, food and shelter can be found. Europe is especially vulnerable because of Africa, a continent that is a highly susceptible to future climate change and that has a very low adaptive capacity to handle it. Central America, however, is a similar region that will be quite susceptible to climate change and will also have a very hard time adapting to it. Look at the shown world map, which shows which countries have been affected most by climate change since 1998-2017. Central was one of the worst affected regions. And future change will only exasperate the situation. So where will they go? North.

Drug cartels will continue to operate and control these countries as long as people have drug issues in the north and they are illegal to obtain. And as long as inequality continues to increase in America, people will continue to turn to drugs to face their depressing future prospects.

it may be that the problem is becoming larger than humanitarian efforts can handle. Bigger than the U.S. government could deal with as it is heavily in debt and that continues to rise. And, as climate change worsens, it will need to put its own interests, and the needs of its people, first over those of other countries.

There is going to be a reckoning at some point. Ugly, difficult choices are going to have to be made – as in medieval times – can they allow everyone inside the castle’s walls when it is attacked, or will some have to be left outside because of lack of food and water inside, and therefore sacrificed?

As climate change worsens, so will immigration. North America, however has a distinct advantage over other regions. It consists of just three countries, its westerns and eastern borders are oceans with the closest neighbors hundreds, if not thousands of miles away. It is only vulnerable to the south. The question then becomes, not if there should be a wall, but where to put it and when.

Should it include Mexico or not? Not including it involves a much longer, timely and expensive wall and means leaving out over 100 million angry people. Or should it be at Mexico’s southern border, which is much shorter? Where should the walls of the fortress be built? It will no longer be about “if” it should be built, but where and when. And what a depressing thought that is.